The association that represents all private mortgage insurers have just come out with their rankings for risk of depreciation. Oklahoma City is in the top five cities in the United States least likely to depreciate. I find these rankings to be significant because sometimes statistics can be a moveable feast based on what you are trying to assert. These people represent the companies that in the real estate market insure loans below 20% down. Therefore they judge a market by risk assessment and they better do their homework. In the 1980's when Oklahoma was experiencing the severe downturn brought on by the energy industry collapse, private mortgage insurers completely pulled out of Oklahoma due to excessive risk. I would think that some markets like Detroit will experience a pull out like we did. In is gratifying to know that twenty five years after the fall of Penn Square Bank, we have gone completely to the other end of the risk spectrum. With our positive cash flow for investors, and low risk of depreciation, I can say with certainty, this is one of the best places to invest in 2007 and 2008. 

Today is the day that many analyst believe the Federal Reserve will again lower the funds rate by 1/4 point. I would also anticipate that rates will lower again next year. The good news is that in the seven states that have the lion share of troubled loans, this could help some to refinance. Although Oklahoma is about average for foreclosures, this helps all states. We are still up 3% in volume over last year, so thankfully we have a stable market. Forbes Magazine just came out with their annual job survey. Oklahoma City was rated 10th in the nation for job growth. More jobs means population growth, and population growth creates more jobs in the service industries. The 1000 Boeing private contractors arriving next year for work at Tinker Air Force Base are the type of quality jobs that have a 4.5 mutiplier affect for service oriented jobs. Oklahoma Cities multiplier affect for population is 3.7. This is what keeps a city rolling. Again, I would like to say stay in conservative markets for the next few years. Markets like ours can give you positive cash flow with 10% interest only, and normally neutral for fixed rate 10%. Plus, on many of our properties we are guaranteeing 3 months rent, and paying for a chattel appraisal that accelerates your depreciation. Hope to see you in San Francisco December 1st. 

I have been with ICG for three years. I just got back from the latest advanced seminar in Los Angeles. I when by the different territories that had single family and condos for sale to investors, and this is what I saw. NEGATIVE CASHFLOW. Some where negative cash flow with 10% down interest only with 5 year ARMs. Many had negative cash flow with 30% down. Why would you want to buy these properties? Unless something really extraordinary happens, at least the next two years will have no appreciation in the United States in almost every market. The subprime and foreclosure problems have not reached their peak for at least two years. Realty Trac which mon monitors foreclosures list California, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Texas, and Georgia as the biggest foreclosure markets. All states will be affected including mine. However, some areas will still appreciate. San Francisco still shows positive although only at 2%, but after their long run up in value that is okay. My state, Oklahoma, is doing better than most with the end of the year anticipated to be 3% to 5%. Trust me, other than isolating small market segments within a given area this is as good as this gets for awhile. I listened to a RE/MAX executive on CNBC today saying that the worst is over. I am a RE/MAx Realtor and I say that is garbage and spin. What is important right now os how to get effective return on investment. In Oklahoma their is a way. First, our economy and affordability and kept us from the worst aspects of the mortgage misery. We can take all of our properties we offered in LA and show positive cash flow with a 10% down interest only. Second, look for rental appreciation. We are up 8% this year over last year, and with mortgages now requiring down payments, first time buyers will be todays renters. Concentrate on conservative markets not oversaturated with investors that can cash flow and build on both a reasonable appreciation, and increased rental rates. With our low taxes, low insurance cost, and solid economy this is the best place to invest. FYI, I have a list of single family and condos that have leases built in before you buy. Give me a call.